Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email
Spring 2000
World Futures
 

Urbanism Framework Document

 

PDF version

  2000-04-24

Definition
Information sources
Current Conditions
Stakeholders
History
Trends
Expected future
Potential wildcards
Issues, dilemmas, choices
Key uncertainties
Alternative futures
Leading indicators

Expected future

Top 20 projected fastest growing US metros (of the 50 largest), 1995-2020

Rank Metro area 1995 (est.) 2020 (proj.) Increase % change
1 Sacramento-Yolo 1,604,724 2,770,060 1,165,336 +72.6%
2 Dallas-Fort Worth 4,449,875 7,412,332 2,962,457 +66.6%
3 Austin-San Marcos 999,936 1,656,298 656,362 +65.6%
4 San Diego 2,644,132 4,173,814 1,529,682 +57.9%
5 Orlando 1,390,574 2,173,267 782,693 +56.3%
6 Phoenix-Mesa 2,563,582 3,990,792 1,427,210 +55.7%
7 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton 972,093 1,504,081 531,988 +54.7%
8 Las Vegas 1,138,758 1,760,723 621,965 +54.6%
9 Atlanta 3,431,983 5,215,731 1,783,748 +52.0%
10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton 3,265,139 4,943,055 1,677,916 +51.4%
11 Salt Lake City-Ogden 1,199,323 1,733,924 534,601 +44.6%
12 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 6,539,602 9,396,971 2,857,369 +43.7%
13 Raliegh-Durham-Chapel Hill 995,256 1,419,452 424,196 +42.6%
14 Portland-Salem 2,021,982 2,806,810 784,828 +38.8%
15 Nashville 1,093,836 1,503,006 409,170 +37.4%
16 Denver-Boulder-Greeley 2,233,172 3,036,753 803,581 +36.0%
17 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 2,180,484 2,963,304 782,820 +35.9%
18 Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County 15,362,165 20,849,218 5,487,053 +35.7%
19 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill 1,289,177 1,720,939 431,762 +33.5%
20 Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News 1,540,446 2,053,253 512,807 +33.3%

Source: www.bizjournals.com/journals/demographics/reports/63/63-1.html

Qualitative description

The populations of cities will continue to grow, with more and more people heading for new suburbs built further and further from downtown. Most development will continue to be sprawling suburbs (Phoenix now covers an area similar to Los Angeles, with a population only one-third the size). The value of properties between these new layers of development and the redeveloped and expensive downtowns will drop. These areas could become run down areas housing only those who are not able to escape or could be renovated or redeveloped, just as downtowns are now. More cities will experiment with expensive mass transit projects as a way to alleviate increasing traffic problems and boost their images (e.g., Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, Memphis, and more). There will continue to be scattered attempts at building neighbourhoods suitable for walking, with conventional mixed-use centres, but there will also be more secure communities and private security guards elsewhere. Vehicle ownership will increase, particularly in developing parts of the world, with the number of vehicles world-wide rising from 550 million today to more than one billion by 2020. Working or studying from home will be an increasingly available possibility for some, although it is hard to tell how many will take the chance. New building technologies will allow new kinds of buildings, and construction on previously unusable land. See the third scenario, for another look at a baseline forecast.

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Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email