Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email
Spring 2000
Futures Methods II

Scenario Building


PDF version


[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 ]

For a company setting up online voting, 2010, SRI method.

Excerpts from personal communications received by Steven Gable on one morning.

Phone text message
From: Democratic Party of Well City
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:00:31
Happy Birthday Steven!

Phone text message
From: The Green Party
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:00:57
Steven, many happy returns!

Phone text message
From: Save Our Schools
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:01:09
Best wishes on your birthday.

Phone text message
From: Democratic Party of Harding County
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:04:23
Happy Birthday Steven!

From: Marge Bayers
To: Steven Gable
Subject: Your voter registration key
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 00:07:32

Steven John Gable,

Congratulations on your 16th birthday. As you are no doubt aware you are now eligible to vote in all federal, state, county, city, town, district, neighborhood and block elections. (Note: Not all forms of election may take place where you live. Check with your area's authorized voting agency for further information.)

You should now register to vote with your area's authorized voting agency. If you do not know the address of your authorized voting agency please visit our website's service area, where you will be able to locate the agency for your area.

You will be able to vote the same day you register with your authorized voting agency, so do not delay. You are now last able to take part in your country's decision making process and enjoy the democracy that has made our country what it is today.

With this power comes great responsibility, so exercise judgement and use your votes wisely.

Marge Bayers,
Secretary for Democracy,
The White House.

Phone text message
From: 34th and Live Oak Republicans
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 04:23:44
Happy Birthday Steven!

To: Steven Gable
Subject: Free quality political coverage from
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 07:35:52

Hi Steven,

Here at we've been providing in depth political coverage for more than twelve years, and now's your chance to try it for free! We'd like to offer you two weeks of free access to our service with no obligation; we're convinced that once you've tried us you won't be able to cast your daily votes without a daily dose of

Our journalists are experienced at getting to the root of the issues to help you make the right decision for all your votes; from the Presidential elections to your street's referendum on frequency of trash collection.

A subscription to our popular premium service entitles you to live footage from all the major debates that affect you, interactive discussions with candidates at all levels, and constant up-to-the-minute reports from your choice of voting regions.

We take pride in providing the most comprehensive discussion on all the matters that affect your life, so don't miss your chance to try us for free! We're not the number one political news source in the country for nothing.

The team.

From: Heather Gable
To: Steven Gable
Subject: Happy Birthday!
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 08:58:33

Happy birthday! I hope you have a wonderful day - don't forget to register!

It would be nice if you could send a message to your grandpa... I finally showed him how to use email. He can be so stubborn at times. Do you know, he was the very last person in his community to get online?

Anyway, I'll see you at the weekend for your party and I want to hear about all your first votes!


From: CNNpn
To: Steven Gable
Subject: Watch today's debates LIVE!
Mon, 29 Mar 2010 09:31:03

We all want to be up to speed on the latest political twists and turns. Here at CNNpn we think you should be able to make up your own mind and that's why we offer live coverage of all the major political debates. Political analysis can only tell you so much, and seeing candidates in action makes all the difference.

Today and every day you can watch the debates live, interrupted only by CNNpn's exclusive and in-depth interviews which have taken us to the top of the Nieslens for eight straight months! Available on your favourite video device on a subscription or pay-per-view basis, CNNpn is the only place to watch.

From: Republican Party of Harding County
To: Steven Gable
Subject: Back to Work Bill
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2010 09:46:27

Don't forget to vote for today's Back to Work Bill. Unemployment in Harding County was approaching 2% last month so this is really important for our beautiful county.

Be sure to vote YES for the Back to Work Bill, #233452/A.


The scenario described is "Life gets better" from the table below.

  Life gets worse Present trends Life gets better Life is different
% of voters voting 20% 50% 90%

-Compulsory voting.
-No voting; dictatorship.
-Eligibility criteria changes.
-Gvt controlled by states on a rotating basis.
-Computers learn how you would vote, so no need to do so in person.

Number of local elections ? ? ? -Local gvt demolished; federal only.
-New levels of local gvt, down to block level.
% of people online 20% 90% 100% -'Online' is a blurred concept; if you have a phone, TV, etc, you're online.
-Net is too slow; most people don't use it.
GNP/capita $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 -
Welath gap Grows a lot Grows slightly Shrinks a lot -Income shared equally.
-All social security abolished.
Citizens' involvement in politics No one cares Some involvement / interest Many people join parties -People forced to watch coverage.
-Joining a party brings status, wealth, other benefits.
Number of political parties 1 2+ 6+ -No political parties; all candidates are independent.
-Parties are continually fragmenting, making alliances.
Media coverage of politics None Some Becomes deeper -Media controlled by government.
-Politics is blurred with entertainment and sports.
Voting age 21 18 16 -Anyone can vote if they pass an exam.
-Maximum voting age introduced.
Unemployment 10% 4% 1% -Work is compulsory.
-Robots and computers do many old jobs.
Acceptance of technology Big anti-tech movement ? Tech far more integrated with life -Online voting banned as discriminatory.


[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 ]

Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email