Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email
Spring 2000
Futures Methods II

Scenario Building


PDF version


[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 ]

An imaginary company concerned with the integration of technology into everyday life, creating solutions for work and play, indoors and outdoors. 2010, Manoa method.

[I decided to try and use photographs in some format, which could be a mistake for a futures scenario; obviously all the images look just like aspects of the present day. Rather than simply collect photos together, I sequenced them in a slideshow, in an effort to give the presentation some more strict narrative. Even so, I think it more gives an impression of an aspect of a possible future, rather than a description of one.

In addition, the first trend seemed difficult to integrate with the other two, and I could see little way to illustrate it obviously in photos. Consequently this trend was left out of the finished presentation rather than make it more confusing.]


  1. The impacts of three trends:
    • Increasing power of supra-national organisations.
      • Reduction of powers of national governments.
      • More solid EU.
      • Emergence of euro as major currency standard.
      • Increasingly larger companies consolidate markets; less reliance on national boundaries.
    • Spread of mobile communications.
      • Most people are contactable anywhere, anytime.
      • Arrangements/schedules are less formal and pre-planned.
      • More people work freelance/contracts; less need for a 'home base.'
      • Families always in touch, even if they're not at home as often.
      • Benefits for both criminals and police.
    • Search for alternatives to combustion-engined cars.
      • Electric/combination cars become cheaper and more common.
      • Smaller cars.
      • Restrictions on combustion-engined car usage in many cities (no-go areas, only on certain days).
      • Increasing taxes on petrol.
      • More light rail, trams, bus services.
      • More cycling.
      • More pedestrianisation.
      • Angry car users.
      • Toll roads.
      • People move closer to sources of work.
      • Some people stuck in sprawling suburbs, unable to afford frequent car use, but with little public transportation.
  2. Combined effects of trends:
    • Supra-national organisations and mobile communications.
      • More people travelling from one country to another on business, but always in contact, connected.
    • Mobile communications and car alternatives.
      • Access to public transportation schedules on handhelds, bus-stops, many places.
    • Car alternatives and supra-national organisations.
      • Europe-wide controls on emissions, car use.

[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 ]

Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email