Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email
Fall 1999
Futures Methods I
  Questionnaire Report   PDF version   1999-12-01

[ Sample | Summary | Voting | Access | Devices | Sites | Companies | Conclusion | Appendix ]

Appendix

1. The next four questions refer to the situation in your home country. What is your home country?

Distribution within groups by country
Group Frequency % UK USA Belgium Canada Italy France
UKNM 25 32.9% 22 2 0 0 1

0
The Well 24 31.6% 1 22 1 0 0 0
Online-Europe 14 18.4% 3 5 2 2 1 1
Haddock 13 17.1% 13 0 0 0 0 0
Total 76 100.0% 39 29 3 2 2 1

 

2. In what year do you think your country will first allow electronic voting from home for a political referendum (local or national)?     3. In what year do you think your country will first allow electronic voting from home for a governmental election (local or national)?
Year UK USA

Rest of
World

 Total
2000 2 3   5
2001 5 3 1 9
2002 5 6 1 12
2003 2   1 3
2004 3 5   8
2005 7 1 1 9
2006 1 2   3
2007       0
2008 2 2   4
2009   1   1
2010 6 2 1 9
2011       0
2012       0
2013       0
2014       0
2015 1     0
2016       0
2017       0
2018       0
2019       0
2020 2 1 1 4
2021       0
2022       0
2023       0
2024       0
2025       0
2026       0
2027       0
2028       0
2029       0
2030       0
2031       0
2032       0
2033       0
2034       0
2035       0
2036       0
2037       0
2038       0
2039       0
2040       0
2041       0
2042       0
2043       0
2044       0
2045       0
2046       0
2047       0
2048       0
2049       0
2050 1     1
After 2050 1     1
Never 1 2 2 5
No response   1   1
Total 39 29 8 76
 
Year UK USA

Rest of
World

 Total

2000

 1 3 1 5
2001 1 1   2
2002 7 2 1 10
2003 1     1
2004 1 6   7
2005 3 1   4
2006 3 1   4
2007 1     1
2008 2 2 1 5
2009 1 1   2
2010 5 5 2 12
2011       0
2012 2 2   4
2013       0
2014       0
2015 1 1   2
2016       0
2017       0
2018       0
2019       0
2020 2   1 3
2021       0
2022       0
2023       0
2024       0
2025 1     1
2026       0
2027       0
2028       0
2029       0
2030 2     0
2031       0
2032       0
2033     1 1
2034       0
2035       0
2036       0
2037       0
2038       0
2039       0
2040   1   1
2041       0
2042       0
2043       0
2044       0
2045       0
2046       0
2047       0
2048       0
2049       0
2050 2     2
After 2050 1     1
Never 2 2 1 5
No response   1   1
Total 39 29 8 76

 

4. In the year 2010 what percentage of households in your country do you think will have some form of Internet access?   5. In the year 2010 what percentage of households in your country do you think will have some form of broadband Internet access?
Percentage UK USA

Rest of
World

 Total
5       0
10       0
15       0
20       0
25       0
30       0
35       0
40   1   1
45   1   1
50 2     2
55 1   1 2
60 1     1
65 2     2
70 1 1 1 3
75 3 7 1 11
80 5 4 2 11
85 6 2 1 9
90 4 6 1 11
95 12 5 1 18
100 2 2   4
No response       0
Total 39 29 8 76
 
Percentage UK USA

Rest of
World

 Total
5   1   1
10        
15 1   1 2
20 2 1   3
25       0
30 2 3   5
35       0
40 2 1   3
45       0
50 7 4 3 14
55       0
60   5 1 6
65 4 1   5
70 1 5   6
75 4 1   5
80 2 3 1 6
85 5     5
90 4   1 5
95 3 2   5
100   2 1 3
No response 2     2
Total 39 29 8 76

6. In the year 2010 which of the following devices do you think you will be using frequently (at least once per week) to access the Internet?

Device UK USA RoW All
Desktop/laptop PC 87.2% 82.8% 100.0% 86.8%
Set-top box 66.7% 31.0% 75.0% 53.9%
Game console 64.1% 10.3% 50.0% 42.1%
Land-line phone 43.6% 34.5% 75.0% 43.4%
Wireless hand-held 100.0% 93.1% 87.5% 96.1%
Public device 61.5% 79.3% 50.0% 67.1%
Household appliance 56.4% 44.8% 62.5% 52.6%
Car-mounted 56.4% 51.7% 75.0% 56.6%
Wearable 56.4% 48.3% 62.5% 53.9%
Inserted 20.5% 13.8% 12.5% 17.1%
Number of respondents 39 29 8 76
 

Other:

  • GPS integrated system in personal aircraft
  • not on the list above. not thought of yet
  • Integrated compu-telecom-entertainment devices
  • is this a teledildonics question?
  • what's a telephone/STB/PC? Products will evolve
  • anything electronic i guess
  • Cell Phone

 

7. Of the top twenty most trafficked sites (at MediaMetrix) which do you think will still be in the top twenty in 2010?   8. Are there any sites which you think will be in the top twenty most trafficked in 2010 which are not at the moment? Enter up to ten addresses or site names in the spaces below.
Site UK USA RoW All
About.com 7.7% 17.2% 25.0% 13.2%
Amazon.com 59.0% 69.0% 62.5% 63.2%
Altavista.com 25.6% 31.0% 37.5% 28.9%
Angelfire.com 0.0% 3.4% 12.5% 2.6%
Aol.com 38.5% 79.3# 62.5% 56.6%
Bluemountainarts.com 7.7% 10.3% 0.0% 7.9%
Ebay.com 30.8% 48.3% 75.0% 42.1%
Excite.com 28.2% 13.8% 12.5% 21.1%
Geocities.com 17.9% 17.2% 37.5% 19.7%
Go.com 17.9% 6.9% 0.0% 11.8%
Hotmail.com 41.0% 27.6% 12.5% 32.9%
Looksmart.com 2.6% 0.0% 12.5% 2.6%
Lycos.com 15.4% 10.3% 25.0% 14.5%
Msn.com 20.5% 20.7% 50.0% 23.7%
Microsoft.com 59.0% 62.1% 37.5% 57.9%
Netscape.com 10.3% 24.1% 0.0% 14.5%
Passport.com 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%
Real.com 10.3% 31.0% 25.0% 19.7%
Tripod.com 7.7% 3.4% 25.0% 7.9%
Yahoo.com 71.8% 69.0% 100.0% 73.7%
Number of respondents 39 29 8 76
 
Address Times mentioned
2010.com 1
alltheweb.com 1
ask.com 1
bbc.co.uk or bbc.com 7
boo.com 1
britannica.com 1
broadcast.com 1
bt.com 1
buymygroceries.com 1
cnn.com 2
expedia.com 1
eyeconomy.com 1
go-neutral.com 1
google.com 4
haddock.org 2
irs.ustreas.gov 1
leisureplanet.com 1
marxists.org/archive/marx 1
mp3.com 1
news.yahoo.com 1
nytimes.com 1
palm.net (or clones of...) 1
peopledaily.com.cn 1
peapod.com 1
planetrx.com 1
shirky.com 1
sjmercury.com 1
travelocity.com 1
wal-mart.com 1
weboffice.com (or similar) 1
webvan.com 1
Sites which don't exist yet 3
.gov and privatised public service sites 1
More government sites 1
mine ;-) 1

9. The companies listed below are the top twenty from the 1999 Fortune Global 500. Which do you think will be knocked from the top twenty due to Internet-based competition by 2010?

Company UK USA RoW All
AXA 25.6% 10.3% 0.0% 17.1%
BP Amoco 17.9% 13.8% 12.5% 15.8%
Citigroup 17.9% 13.8% 12.5% 15.8%
DaimlerChrysler 12.8% 6.9% 12.5% 10.5%
Exxon 15.4% 13.8% 25.0% 15.8%
Ford Motor 20.5% 6.9% 12.5% 14.5%
General Electric 17.9% 6.9% 0.0% 11.8%
General Motors 17.9% 6.9% 12.5% 13.2%
IBM 23.1% 6.9% 50.0% 19.7%
Itochu 10.3% 3.4% 0.0% 6.6%
Marubeni 12.8% 6.9% 0.0% 9.2%
Mitsubishi 15.4% 3.4% 0.0% 11.8%
Mitsui 10.3% 3.4% 0.0% 6.6%
NTT 23.1% 20.7% 25.0% 22.4%
Nissho Iwai 12.8% 3.4% 0.0% 7.9%
Royal Dutch/Shell 17.9% 6.9% 25.0% 14.5%
Sumitomo 15.4% 6.9% 0.0% 10.5%
Toyota Motor 12.8% 6.9% 12.5% 10.5%
Volkswagen 12.8% 13.8% 12.5% 13.2%
Wal-Mart Stores 30.8% 41.4% 25.0% 34.2%
Number of respondents 39 29 8 76

 

[ Sample | Summary | Voting | Access | Devices | Sites | Companies | Conclusion | Appendix ]
Index of papers Phil Gyford: web | email